Insights

This week, our In Focus section reviews recent Medicaid enrollment trends in capitated, risk-based managed care in 32 states.^[1] Many state Medicaid agencies post monthly enrollment figures by health plan for their Medicaid managed care population to their websites. This data allows for the timeliest analysis of enrollment trends across states and managed care organizations. All 32 states highlighted in this review have released monthly Medicaid managed care enrollment data into the fourth quarter (Q4) of 2022. This report reflects the most recent data posted. HMA will continue tracking enrollment throughout the eligibility redetermination period. HMA has made the following observations related to the enrollment data shown on Table 1 (below):

• The 32 states in this report account for an estimated 71 million Medicaid managed care enrollees as of December 2022. Based on HMA estimates of MCO enrollment in states not covered in this report, we believe that nationwide Medicaid MCO enrollment was likely about 75 million in December 2022. As such, the enrollment data across these 32 states represents approximately 95 percent of all Medicaid MCO enrollment.
• Across the 32 states tracked in this report, Medicaid managed care enrollment is up 7.5 percent year-over-year as of December 2022.
• All states, besides Mississippi, saw increases in enrollment in December 2022, compared to the previous year, due to the gains from the COVID-19 pandemic. Mississippi Medicaid managed care enrollment fell because the state shifted members to FFS during the public health emergency.
• Twenty-three of the 32 states – Arizona, California, District of Columbia, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, Nevada, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Washington, and West Virginia – expanded Medicaid under the Affordable Care Act and have seen increased Medicaid managed care enrollment since expansion.
• The 23 expansion states listed above have seen net Medicaid managed care enrollment increase by 3.5 million members, or 7.2 percent, in the past year, to 52.2 million members at the end of 2022.
• The nine states that have not yet expanded Medicaid as of December 2022 – Florida, Georgia, Kansas, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, and Wisconsin – have seen Medicaid managed care enrollment increase 8.3 percent to 19 million members at the end of 2022.

Table 1 – Monthly MCO Enrollment by State – July 2022 through December 2022

Note: In Table 1 above and the state tables below, “+/- m/m” refers to the enrollment change from the previous month. “% y/y” refers to the percentage change in enrollment from the same month in the previous year.

Below, we provide a state-specific analysis of recent enrollment trends in the states where HMA tracks data.

It is important to note the limitations of the data presented. First, not all states report the data at the same time during the month. Some of these figures reflect beginning-of-the-month totals, while others reflect an end-of-the-month snapshot. Second, in some cases the data is comprehensive in that it covers all state-sponsored health programs for which the state offers managed care; in other cases, the data reflects only a subset of the broader Medicaid managed care population. This is the key limiting factor in comparing the data described below and figures reported by publicly traded Medicaid MCOs. Consequently, the data we review in Table 1 and throughout the In Focus section should be viewed as a sampling of enrollment trends across these states rather than a comprehensive comparison, which cannot be developed based on publicly available monthly enrollment data.

State-Specific Analysis

Arizona

Medicaid Expansion Status: Expanded January 1, 2014

Enrollment in Arizona’s two Medicaid managed care programs grew to 2.1 million in December 2022, up 7.1 percent from December 2021.

California

Medicaid Expansion Status: Expanded January 1, 2014

Medi-Cal managed care enrollment was up 9.5 percent year-over-year to 13.2 million, as of December 2022.

District of Columbia

Medicaid Expansion Status: Expanded January 1, 2014

Medicaid managed care enrollment in the District of Columbia was up 6.4 percent to almost 251,000 in November 2022.

Florida

Medicaid Expansion Status: Not Expanded

Florida’s statewide Medicaid managed care program had seen an 11 percent rise in total covered lives over the last year to nearly 4.6 million beneficiaries as of December 2022. (Note that the managed LTC enrollment figures listed below are a subset of the Managed Medical Assistance (MMA) enrollments and are included in the MMA number; they are not separately added to the total to avoid double counting).

Georgia

Medicaid Expansion Status: Not Expanded

As of December 2022, Georgia’s Medicaid managed care program covered more than 2 million members, up 8.3 percent from the previous year.

Illinois

Medicaid Expansion Status: Expanded January 1, 2014

Illinois enrollment across the state’s managed care programs was up 5.5 percent to 3 million as of December 2022.

Indiana

Medicaid Expansion Status: Expanded in 2015 through HIP 2.0

As of December 2022, enrollment in Indiana’s managed care programs—Hoosier Healthwise, Hoosier Care Connect, and Healthy Indiana Program (HIP)—was more than 1.8 million, up 10.3 percent from the previous year.

Iowa

Medicaid Expansion Status: Expanded January 1, 2014

Iowa launched its statewide Medicaid managed care program in April of 2016. Enrollment across all populations was nearly 814,500, as of December 2022. Enrollment was up 6.1 percent from the previous year.

Kansas

Medicaid Expansion Status: Not Expanded

Kansas Medicaid managed care enrollment was nearly 501,000 as of December 2022, up 6.3 percent from the previous year.

Kentucky

Medicaid Expansion Status: Expanded January 1, 2014

As of December 2022, Kentucky covered more than 1.5 million beneficiaries in risk-based managed care. Total enrollment was up 6.1 percent from the prior year.

Louisiana

Medicaid Expansion Status: Expanded July 1, 2016

Medicaid managed care enrollment in Louisiana was more than 1.86 million as of December 2022, up 5.8 percent from the previous year.

Maryland

Medicaid Expansion Status: Expanded January 1, 2014

Maryland’s Medicaid managed care program covered more than 1.5 million lives as of December 2022.

Michigan

Medicaid Expansion Status: Expanded April 1, 2014

As of December 2022, Michigan’s Medicaid managed care was up 4.3 percent to 2.3 million.

Minnesota

Medicaid Expansion Status: Expanded January 1, 2014

As of December 2022, enrollment across Minnesota’s multiple managed Medicaid programs was nearly 1.3 million, up 7.5 percent from the prior year.

Mississippi

Medicaid Expansion Status: Not Expanded

MississippiCAN, the state’s Medicaid managed care program, had membership down 3.9 percent to nearly 397,000 as of December 2022.

Missouri

Medicaid Expansion Status: Expansion Enrollment began in October 2021

Missouri managed care enrollment in the Medicaid and CHIP programs was nearly 1.2 million in December 2022.

Nebraska

Medicaid Expansion Status: Expanded October 1, 2020

As of December 2022, Nebraska’s Medicaid managed care program enrolled 378,000 members, up 10.6 percent from the previous year.

Nevada

Medicaid Expansion Status: Expanded January 1, 2014

Nevada’s Medicaid managed care enrollment was up 5.7 percent to nearly 693,000 as of December 2022.

New Jersey

Medicaid Expansion Status: Expanded January 1, 2014

As of December 2022, New Jersey Medicaid managed care enrollment was up 7 percent to nearly 2.2 million.

New Mexico

Medicaid Expansion Status: Expanded January 1, 2014

As of December 2022, New Mexico’s Centennial Care program covered nearly 816,000 members, up 2.3 percent from the previous year.

New York

Medicaid Expansion Status: Expanded January 1, 2014

New York’s Medicaid managed care programs collectively covered nearly 6 million beneficiaries as of December 2022, a 4.6 percent increase from the previous year. The Medicaid Advantage program ended in December 2021.

North Carolina

Medicaid Expansion Status: Not Expanded

As of December 2022, enrollment in North Carolina’s Medicaid managed care program was 1.8 million, up 9.5 percent from the prior year. North Carolina implemented Medicaid managed care on July 1, 2021.

Ohio

Medicaid Expansion Status: Expanded January 1, 2014

As of December 2022, enrollment across all four Ohio Medicaid managed care programs was nearly 3 million, up 0.9 percent from the prior year.

Oregon

Medicaid Expansion Status: Expanded January 1, 2014

As of December 2022, enrollment in the Oregon Coordinated Care Organization (CCO) Medicaid managed care program was more than 1.2 million, up 7.2 percent from the previous year.

Pennsylvania

Medicaid Expansion Status: Expanded January 1, 2015

As of December 2022, Pennsylvania’s Medicaid managed care enrollment was nearly 3 million, up 6.5 percent in the past year.

South Carolina

Medicaid Expansion Status: Not Expanded

South Carolina’s Medicaid managed care programs collectively enrolled nearly 1.1 million members as of December 2022, which represents an increase of 7.5 percent in the past year.

Tennessee

Medicaid Expansion Status: Not Expanded

As of December 2022, TennCare managed care enrollment totaled 1.7 million, up 5.8 percent from the prior year.

Texas

Medicaid Expansion Status: Not Expanded

Texas’ state fiscal year begins in September and program-specific enrollment is only reported at the end of each state fiscal quarter. As of November 2022, Texas Medicaid managed care enrollment was nearly 5.7 million across the state’s six managed care programs, up 10.6 percent from the previous year.

Virginia

Medicaid Expansion Status: January 1, 2019

Virginia Medicaid managed care enrollment was up 9.8 percent in December 2022 to 1.6 million members.

Washington

Medicaid Expansion Status: Expanded January 1, 2014

Washington’s Medicaid managed care enrollment increased 7.2 percent to nearly 2 million as of December 2022, compared to the previous year.

West Virginia

Medicaid Expansion Status: Expanded January 1, 2014

As of December 2022, West Virginia’s Medicaid managed care program covered 533,000 members, up 5.7 percent year-over-year.

Wisconsin

Medicaid Expansion Status: Not Expanded

Across Wisconsin’s three Medicaid managed care programs, December 2022 enrollment totaled nearly 1.2 million, up 6.6 percent from the year before.

More Information Available from HMA Information Services

More detailed information on the Medicaid managed care landscape is available from HMA Information Services (HMAIS), which collects Medicaid enrollment data, health plan financials, and the latest on expansions, waivers, duals, ABD populations, long-term care, accountable care organizations, and patient-centered medical homes. HMAIS also includes a public documents library with copies of Medicaid RFPs, responses, model contracts, and scoring sheets.

HMAIS enhances this publicly available information with an overview of the structure of Medicaid in each state, as well as proprietary Medicaid Managed Care RFP calendars.

[1] Arizona, California, District of Columbia, Florida, Georgia, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, Nebraska, Nevada, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, North Carolina, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, Washington, West Virginia, Wisconsin.