Ohio Medicaid is no stranger to change. Over the last several years, there have been several broad policy changes, from a new managed care system, to new programs like OhioRISE, to an expansion of MyCare Ohio. And, during this time, there have been complicating factors like the covid-19 public health emergency and the resultant impact of inflation on the basic delivery of services and care. Now, as the Trump administration comes in for the second time, questions arise as to what to expect in Medicaid policy and how it may impact Ohio.
While it’s often overlooked, federal rule making has a significant impact on the operations of states. Just in the last couple of years, the Biden Administration has implemented policies including:
- The Access rule, such as the 80/20 policy, implementation timelines, and other questions regarding Home and Community Based Services waivers that states and certain stakeholders elevate to the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS).
- The Managed Care rule, which addresses Medicaid managed care access, financing, and quality, including strengthening standards for timely access to care and states’ monitoring and enforcement efforts.
- The Long-Term Care Facility (LTC) Staffing rule requires minimum staffing standards for nursing facilities.
- Two rules streamline Medicaid enrollment and renewal processes for the Medicare Savings Program (MSP) and for Medicaid, CHIP and the Basic Health Program. Each rule is expected to increase Medicaid enrollment by about one million people.
These rules are set to be implemented over several years. The Trump Administration could delay implementation of certain provisions, which would eliminate regulations while rolling back enrollee protections, payment transparency, and improved access. Alternatively, the Trump Administration could adjust their enforcement strategy or issue new regulations that would undo or augment these final regulations.
Beyond regulation, there is still the potential for fundamental policy change to the program’s financing. Notably, the concept of block grants or per-capita caps has reemerged as a potential option, where states would no longer receive federal “match”, but rather a fixed amount based on historical averages. In fact, Energy and Commerce Chair Brett Guthrie has already identified per capita caps as an area of active conversation in the House Republican Caucus.
Making a fundamental, national change in the financing arrangement of Medicaid would require an act of Congress. Many think this movement away from a traditional reimbursement structure was one of the main reasons for the failure to repeal the Affordable Care Act during the first Trump administration. Notably, as Ohio is a “recipient” state, meaning it receives more in federal taxes than it provides for the Medicaid program, this could significantly impact the long-term financial stability in future state budgets. Often, this challenge is why block granting is usually associated with additional state powers around curbing enrollment, services and coverage, so states may more easily cut the program to accommodate tighter financing.
Depending on how all of these changes would unfold, Medicaid programs, including Ohio’s may have to adopt their systems to accommodate. However, the Trump administration may also pursue greater flexibility for states to design and innovate in Medicaid in ways that are consistent with their goals. This could include greater flexibility to limit covered services, raise cost-sharing requirements, limit enrollment or require more frequent determination of eligibility. There may also be programmatic refocusing away from initiatives which center health equity and expanded coverage, including alternatives to “Medicaid expansion”, as well as a fundamental reorientation of the use of waivers.
Speaking of waivers, there is likely going to be a dramatic change in the way waivers are applied and executed. This can include, but is not limited to, waivers that test new policies the prioritize cost-cutting measures over access and coverage, including waivers which change how the Medicaid expansion group is managed in states. Included in this are “Work Requirement” waivers, something Ohio is currently in the process of submitting. While examples from other states have shown that such waivers are often costly to operate and ultimately have the impact of decreasing coverage, the Trump administration and many policymakers see these requirements as a way to ensure labor force participation. Though there is evidence to suggest coverage, alone, increases economic mobility,
As Ohio providers, plans and policymakers gear up for the next state budget, the landscape of Medicaid policy will be something to pay attention to. While Medicaid represents nearly 48% of the total state budget, half of that is from the federal government. What’s more, nearly 1 in 3 Ohioans rely on the program, disproportionately in rural communities, and it supports Ohio’s second largest industry in healthcare. Make sure you stay on top of the latest updates to the program in Ohio and beyond and sign up for HMAs Weekly Roundup.
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